Innovation and recycling
A tight supply can however encourage innovation, recycling and a greater emphasis on circular economy principles. For example, minerals such as cobalt can be extracted from old batteries which can help meet 12% of total demand by 2040. See The transition to clean energy will mint new commodity superpowers and “Swappable batteries for electric vans and lorries make sense” which describes battery-swapping by Gogoro which uses standardised batteries.
Projects will need technical advisors who understand a changing market and its associated technologies/innovations. Re-cycling technical documents will not be possible across projects (with different battery suppliers).
The Economist states that based on manufacturers’ declared plans (if they should materialise), we will have 282 new gigafactories by 2031 (which will take global capacity to 5,800 GWh). Current supply from the big 6 established suppliers, BYD and CATL (China), LG, Samsung and SK Innovation of South Korea and Panasonic of Japan, adds up to 1360 GWh by the end of the decade. The balance will need to see newcomers. See Could the EV boom run out of juice before it really gets going? .
Newcomers will likely bring in new battery technologies which project teams particularly technical advisors will need to grapple with.